A point, part of which has been made by the organization Foresight4Food, seems very relevant to this discussion about possibilities in agriculture: Agriculture would benefit from more focus on foresight and forward action, and less focus on forecasts.

Before we get too carried away, just to be clear, I still want to check the daily weather forecast. It matters to know whether it’s going to rain tomorrow if you’re in the midst of planting or harvest or just about any day on a farm or ranch. So I’m not saying that forecasts don’t still have their place.

But I do think in food and agriculture we spend a lot of energy and effort trying to predict what specifically will happen next, and that can sometimes keep us from focusing on the bigger picture, and also from taking the next steps that are within our control.

Forecasts and Foresight

Often, the investments in forecasts can provide those in food and agriculture a false sense of security, that we somehow fully understand, or can even control, what comes next in markets or in the broader food and agriculture landscape.

First things first, at the most fundamental level, food and agriculture are inherently part of a living, dynamic system of the Earth we share. IIt’s not up to farmers or ranchers, or even agricultural policymakers, to control what comes next. Change, and to some extent uncertainty, is the nature of this place. Most farmers will be quick to tell you they don’t control the weather, nor what the season will bring. And still there are a host of ways that we can prepare for the uncertainty of the weather and climate on any farm.

What if this approach we take to the weather was applied to the other climates we engage with in agriculture: the policy climate, the political climate, the trade climate, the consumer climate, the environmental climate, the supply chain climate, the transportation climate, etc?

This is perhaps an even bigger leap, but what if, instead of calls for “certainty”, we acknowledge the highly dynamic nature of the world we’re living in? Take the political landscape as an example. In the U.S. at the federal level, a new House of Representative is elected every 2 years, the President serves a four year term, a Senator serves a 6 year term but the control of the Senate is up for change every 2 years. Intersect that with state and local elections at various time intervals, and the revolving door of global leadership changes, and even using the political environment agriculture operates within as a microcosm, change is the only constant.

Once we’re willing to look at the nature of the changing world with clear eyes, the door swings wide open for foresight.

With more foresight, we have the opportunity for deepening our understanding of the bigger picture dynamics that are at play, understanding more of the range of outcomes that are possible, and building our wisdom about how to best align with what is unfolding.

Some examples of foresight for what is on the horizon (or is already here!) in food and agriculture:

• Stronger relationships between how food is grown and the consumer

• Shifting global population dynamics

• Shifting preferences for food

• Greater need to work with the environment, instead of against it

• Climate variability and extremes

• Protectionist trade policies

• Supply chain disruptions due to a host of geopolitical and environmental reasons

Some of these examples of foresight might be illuminated and supported by forecasts, but they go beyond individual narrow forecasts and speak of the broader themes and waves that those in food and agriculture will face.

Foresight for Forward Action

Still, foresight alone is not enough. To truly be impactful, foresight must lead to forward action. The value in foresight is in allowing it to change our orientation and to inform the direction we are headed and how we are making the journey. Harvard Business Review had an interesting piece related to this, about the divorcing of foresight and strategic actions and the implications it has had broadly for businesses.

Exclusively seeking foresight can even paralyze taking the needed action. There’s a balance of achieving enough foresight, and taking the step of using that information to make strategic pivots and bring new ideas that respond to those foresights into tangible reality.

Starting with a framework of, “Are the foresight and forecasts that are being built within the framework of what will generate actionable perspectives?” can be a helpful approach.

Even if the action steps are small, aligning in the direction of what’s unfolding and becoming available can be powerful catalysts.

Taking an example of the likelihood of climate variability and extremes into the future, what are some action steps that can be taken? The appropriate step depends on positionality, access to resources, etc, but here are some possibilities:

• Trialing crop varieties that are more resilient to temperature and precipitation variability, to build on-site expertise.

• Adjusting specialty crop production practices to accommodate wider swings in temperatures, such as through frost protection, shade, etc.

• Building more resilient farm ecosystems that have greater capacity for self-correction when faced with climate challenges.

• Preparing for instances of power outages, disruptions in transportation, market disruptions, with an action plan in place.

• Building a network of suppliers and sales, rather than over-reliance on individual businesses or locations.

  
  

These are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of ways that foresight can be translated to action. And that's the point, the possibilities are limitless, if we allow them to be.

--2/5/25

Note: An introduction to this series and links to other topics in the series can be found here.