Growing in Alignment
Charts+
There are many storylines in farming and food business and policy, and charts and other materials will be added here periodically to highlight a few of those.
Are we, those in food and agriculture, focused on the right risks?
Are we, those in food and agriculture, focused on the right risks?
I’ve been reflecting lately on how there are abundant tools and trainings available for certain risks that farmers face, and not nearly any tools at all for other risks. And the TL;DR version is: There is risk in places we’ve barely focused on as a source of risk, and for many farmers, these will be challenges they will increasingly face now and in coming years. (And don't count on your Facebook page.)
Why do we care about navigating risk in the first place? For me, it’s in part so that our farms and farmers can be resilient in the face of challenging circumstances. And you don’t have to watch the news or ride around in farm country long to know that challenging circumstances are upon us.
Every farm situation is unique, but how many risks are there that are potentially more disruptive than things we focus on much more, such as variations in price?
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Lower Farm Income Forecast in 2023
USDA ERS released its revised forecast for 2023 net farm income today, providing a chance to take a step back from short term price movements and check in with the direction of the overall farm economy across U.S. agricultural sectors. This comes after the spring and summer months have progressed and as we move into the fall crop harvest season. This is the first farm income forecast release for the year that includes a good amount of planting and crop condition (crops) and production (livestock, poultry, dairy) data, as well as the latest USDA WASDE supply and demand estimates.
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Food to Feel Good: Foregoing the Trends, Deeply Engaging with How We Consume, and Aligning with a Better Experience
Can all modern U.S. food trends be boiled down to Americans trying to eat food to “feel good”? Feeling good is what many are after, and food is the entry point we’re often using. Still, we don’t all feel sustainably good after jumping on some or all of these trends. So why is this happening and what does that tell us? And perhaps, is chasing these trends missing the root of how to get what we want?
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Eleven Global and International-Focused Free Data Resources
Here are 11 free data resources to help research global or international agriculture and food questions. This is the third post in a series of useful data resources for those in the agriculture and food area.
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Eleven More U.S.-Focused Free Data Resources
Since the list of USDA data sources seemed useful to folks, here is a list of 11 non-USDA data and information sources that are also rich in data points that may be helpful in researching or answering questions related to U.S. agriculture and its intersection with the broader economy.
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What Do Lower Payments in 2023 Mean?
One nuance of Feb 7th’s USDA farm income forecast I found of note was this: the forecast for direct government payments in 2023 is forecast at the lowest level in real (2023) dollars since 1982, at $10.3 billion. Lower direct government payments not only have implications for the health and resilience of the ag sector as a whole, but it highlights what strikes me as a likely even bigger long term question around the implications of lower expected direct government payments this year, and that is: what will the Congressional Budget Office March 2023 10-year baseline levels for farm programs be?
Eleven Free USDA Data Resources
If you have an agriculture- or food- related question, especially one related to U.S. agriculture, and are wondering where to find data and have no idea where to start, here are 11 free USDA and related data resources available for data queries or downloads:
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What Do You Mean by "Farmer"?
When you say farmer, what do you mean? Do you mean a person primarily dependent on farming for their household income, or do you mean a person in a household with farm income? Because there are about twice as many farms (1.96 million farms according to USDA ERS 2020 ARMS estimates) as there are farms of farm types with on average more than half of household income primarily from farming (964 thousand farms).
U.S. Food Price ... Decreases?
One question I’ve heard recently is: Is it possible that food prices are going to come back down, or are they going to stay at current levels (or higher)? For context on any precedent for a pullback in overall U.S. consumer food prices, we can look at the history of food prices (via the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, or CPI-U, for food) back to the start of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data series in 1913.