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One nuance of February 7th’s USDA farm income forecast I found of note was this: the forecast for direct government payments in 2023 is forecast at the lowest level in real (2023) dollars since 1982, at $10.3 billion. Lower direct government payments not only have implications for the health and resilience of the ag sector as a whole, but it highlights what strikes me as a likely even bigger long term question around the implications of lower expected direct government payments this year, and that is: what will the Congressional Budget Office March 2023 10-year baseline levels for farm programs be? The March CBO baseline is typically the baseline, or 10-year cost estimate, that is used to estimate the budget implications of new proposed farm programs or alterations to existing programs. Especially this year as Congress looks to negotiate the next Farm Bill, a tight budget could add additional wrinkles to the negotiations, notwithstanding the multitude of other dynamics that can and will affect funding projections and fund availability. 

USDA released its updated farm income forecast on Feb 7, 2023, one of 3 times per year these updates are made and the first such release to include a forecast for U.S. farm income for 2023. This forecast is a rich data set that can be further analyzed in a variety of ways, and I encourage you to take a look yourself if it’s of interest, or reach out if there are further questions or explorations you’re interested in.