Growing in Alignment
![Romanesco Cauliflower](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/11062b_045b42531d0c4991a2c3cdae082cda9b~mv2.jpeg/v1/fill/w_513,h_342,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/11062b_045b42531d0c4991a2c3cdae082cda9b~mv2.jpeg)
![Romanesco Cauliflower](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/11062b_045b42531d0c4991a2c3cdae082cda9b~mv2.jpeg/v1/fill/w_513,h_342,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/11062b_045b42531d0c4991a2c3cdae082cda9b~mv2.jpeg)
Charts+
There are many storylines in farming and food business and policy, and charts and other materials will be added here periodically to highlight a few of those.
Lower Farm Income Forecast in 2023
USDA ERS released its revised forecast for 2023 net farm income today, providing a chance to take a step back from short term price movements and check in with the direction of the overall farm economy across U.S. agricultural sectors. This comes after the spring and summer months have progressed and as we move into the fall crop harvest season. This is the first farm income forecast release for the year that includes a good amount of planting and crop condition (crops) and production (livestock, poultry, dairy) 2023 data, as well as the latest USDA WASDE supply and demand estimates.
​
USDA ERS estimates U.S. 2023 net farm income at $141.3 billion. This is a 23% decrease (down $41.7 billion) from the 2022 U.S. net farm income and a 3% upward adjustment from the February forecast for 2023 of $136.9 billion. The changes in the forecasts highlight the higher cost of borrowing for farmers this year, and a mixed bag of shifts in market conditions, depending on the agricultural product.
![Farm Income 2023_08.jpg](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/dafea1_2a351c96f4284c1d85c1338078484730~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_783,h_435,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/Farm%20Income%202023_08.jpg)
Key components of the year-over-year 23% decrease in 2023 forecast net farm income compared to 2022 include:
-
For livestock and poultry products, decreases in the value of poultry and eggs and dairy production that are not enough to offset increases in cattle and calves value of production.
-
Increases in certain expenses. That includes a 7% (up $6.0 billion) increase in other intermediate expenses, such as repair and maintenance, total insurance expenses (primarily driven by increases outside of federal crop insurance expenses), and miscellaneous expenses.
-
A 38% year-over-year increase in interest expenses, forecast to total $33 billion in 2023.
Key components of the 3% upward revision in the August forecast for 2023 net farm income, compared to the February forecast, include:
-
A $9.4 billion (24%) upward revision in other farm income to $48.2 billion.
-
A mixed bag on revisions in cash receipts for farm production, including:
-
A $12.4 billion upward revision in cattle and calves cash receipts, and a $6.1 billion upward revision in vegetable cash receipts.
-
A $9.9 billion downward revision in annual crops cash receipts, including corn (down $5.8 billion), fruits and nuts (down $4.8 billion), wheat (down $2.2 billion), soybeans (down $1.6 billion), and cotton (down $1.0 billion).
-
​
Other lines of note in the farm income forecast include crop insurance indemnities in 2022 and 2023 that are more than double the average of the 5 years prior, forecast at $18.4 billion in 2023. Manufactured input expenses also remain at very elevated levels, basically flat in 2023 from 2022, but up 39% from the average of the 5 years prior.
​
The complete farm income forecast and more detail can be found on the USDA ERS webpage here.
​
USDA ERS’s next farm income forecast update is set for release November 30, 2023.
​
--8/31/23